06 February 2025
Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing our planet, and like many countries, Wales has set out to achieve net zero by 2050.

As part of its commitment to ensure every single person in Wales can be part of the solution, the Welsh Government introduced a Public Engagement Strategy in 2023. This provides a framework for working with people across the country to act on climate and nature emergencies and ensuring a range of views are captured. 

SYSTRA’s Social and Market Research Team was chosen to bring their expertise and experience, including from previous work for Transport for Wales on a range of sustainable transport initiatives, to evaluate how the strategy is contributing to the net zero target in a new report published today, Thursday 6th February 2025. 

To do this, our team of professional researchers and evaluators developed a Theory of Change (ToC) logic model for the strategy. A ToC is an established evaluation tool for outlining what an intervention aims to achieve and how, by breaking down each component into its inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes, and impacts. By integrating the COM-B model of behavioural change, used by the Welsh Government for the Public Engagement Strategy into the Theory of Change, the Theory of Change demonstrates what changes in public participation outcomes would need to be measured to say it is the strategy specifically that has led to positive change. 

An photo of the back of someone cycling down a road with trees and grass on either side.

Sally McNamara, Project Director at SYSTRA, said: “All nations need to achieve their net zero targets to create a sustainable society, and our Social Market Research Team is proud to be helping the Welsh Government with their approach. As they continue to deliver on their engagement strategy, the Theory of Change model will be vital to understand what is working, why, and how, to maximise the positive environmental impacts. It is now a live document and will develop as the strategy evolves. 

“This project was also personally insightful. I’ve always been passionate about active travel and recycling, but this work made me realise I’m doing a lot of things in isolation, and there is so much more I can do. Due to this project, I’ve joined a couple of local community groups and am going to give our next monthly repair café a go rather than dump a speaker that isn’t working. I’m also trying to do more than simply model green behaviour to my daughters but get them involved in volunteering, including our next community litter pick, and working in a community garden.” 

All nations need to achieve their net zero targets to create a sustainable society, and our Social Market Research Team is proud to be helping the Welsh Government with their approach.

Sally McNamara, Project Director, SYSTRA Ltd

SYSTRA’s Social and Market Research Team worked with colleagues Prof Wouter Poortinga and Dr Caroline Verfuerth from Cardiff University and the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST), who contributed to the evidence review and advised on the theory of change logic model.  

Read the SYSTRA report for the Welsh Government ‘Theory of Change for Climate Action Wales: Public Engagement Strategy 2023-2026’ in English or Welsh.

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