{"id":389,"date":"2023-03-09T20:17:02","date_gmt":"2023-03-09T19:17:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.systra.com\/canada\/?post_type=projects&p=389"},"modified":"2024-06-25T17:56:54","modified_gmt":"2024-06-25T15:56:54","slug":"ridership-forecasting-for-rem-extension","status":"publish","type":"projects","link":"https:\/\/www.systra.com\/canada\/project\/ridership-forecasting-for-rem-extension\/","title":{"rendered":"Ridership Forecasting for REM Extension"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Technical details<\/div>\n \t
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Customer<\/div>\n\t
CDPQ Infra<\/div>\n\t <\/div>\n
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Dates<\/div>\n

2020-2021<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Missions<\/div>\n
Develop a model of hourly ridership for the Lavoie project<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Localisation<\/div>\n
Canada<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Activity<\/div>\n
Transport planning and demand analysis, modelling, traffic forecast<\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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CDPQ Infra decided to develop a 24-hours modelling for forecasting the ridership of the Lavoie project (connecting Laval to Montreal) in order to avoid the uncertainty caused by the application of a coefficient for transitioning from the morning peak time (PPAM) to the entire day. <\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This uncertainty was indeed caused by differences between OPUS (ticketing system) data and findings from the departure-destination survey (OD2018) for the PPAM (\u0394 30 %). There are also differences for the other periods of the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 24-hour modelling aims to forecast the demand to calibrate the main network components, as well as to make a preliminary estimate of the income to be received by the contractor (CDPQ Infra) during the concession period. SYSTRA Canada designed these models by using QUETZAL<\/mark><\/a>. This is an open-source tool using a Python library.  This 24-hour modelling is based on models over specific time periods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The five periods of the day simulated, which are consistent with the departure-destination survey data, are the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n